Wen/Qingcheng Yinan
In WeChat reading, there is a book marked as a god, called "above the earth".
This book is called the Indian version of "Alive".
The book says that everyone in the world has their positions. As long as everyone adheres to their position, they can survive the dark battle and get out of peace.If someone dares to dare to sting and destroy the order of the universe, it is not allowed to bear what kind of disaster.
Low surnames are downstream, and the high surnames are in the upstream. In order to change their destiny, they come from Chamal's surname. The protagonist family who uses tanning and tanned and tanned as the main character of the industry, risked in life.For the sake of living, Chamar went to the city again.
In the process, many scenarios are familiar to us. For example, people are overcrowded. People who are hung on the train every day, people who commute in the morning and evening; without stable hydropower supply, shantytowns built at will, they have to be solved by the train tracks;, Smoke butt, eggshells floating and heavy stinky ditch, and family planning that was arrested at will ...
The process of reading is sad, and I am often angry in my heart. Why is the world so unfair to them?
But the protagonists often say:
This is the life of big cities -without beautiful snow mountains, you must learn to cover Jiao Didi's eyes and nose.
This is the world.Some people are in the middle, some people are on the side.If you want to grow your dreams and gain something, you must be patient.
The stock market has risen for 8 years, and the economy is strong
In 2023, the Indians were patient.
The Indian stock market ushered in an unprecedented eight -year company. The market value exceeded $ 4 trillion for the first time and surpassed Hong Kong to become the seventh largest stock market in the world.
From a longer dimension, the performance of the Indian stock market is even more staggering.Taking Indian Sensex30 as an example, since 1991, Sensex30 has risen 65 times.
Explaining the prosperity of the Indian stock market is an important issue in the world, which is particularly eye -catching.
Indians' confidence, Mumbai Kotak Security CEO Pratik Gupta, CEO and co -head of the institutional stocks, said:
"When you look around the world, there are not so many countries that can be believed in the next 15-20 years. On the basis of sustainable, you will see that the actual GDP increases at least 6%."
As the leading force of the Indian stock market, the prospects of foreign banks to India are similar to Pratik Gupta. HSBC, Flower Dialogue, Damo, and many foreign institutions believe that India's economic performance in 2023 exceeds expectations.Most of them expect that the growth rate of India's GDP in 2024 is expected to reach 6.7%, and it slows down in 2025, but still 6.2%.
Traditionally, India, which is well known by the service industry, is developing rapidly in the manufacturing field. Because of this, compared with the growth rate of GDP, the most eye -catching data of the Indian economy this year is the manufacturing PMI.
Looking at the world, the manufacturing PMI has long been kept in countries above 50.The traditional economy or manufacturing country is not struggling around 50, or it is like Germany, suffocating underwater for a long time.
The rise of the manufacturing industry, the economic changes in India are great
The Indian manufacturing industry is so strong, thanks to both internal and external reasons.
From the perspective of external factors, in the context of Sino -US relations, India is one of the most beneficial countries.
According to statistics from Guojin Securities, in the context of the global FDI fall, India's attracted capital inflows are still expanding.After 2016, the global FDI continued to fall, but India's FDI traffic expanded to $ 49.3 billion in 2022, higher than 2021.
Among them, the United States has expanded its investment in India. After the epidemic, the United States has become the main source of investment in India, accounting for 12%in 2022.
From the industry point of view, the inflow of foreign capital attracted by manufacturing continued to increase, rising to $ 11.3 billion in 2022.
Another institution has done statistics. From 2017 to the end of 2022, India accounted for an increase of 0.6 percentage points in US imports, which was higher than that of Mexico, South Korea and other countries. It was one of the main beneficiaries of the US supply chain diffusion.
In the long run, India has continued to rise in US imports, and as of September 2023, it accounted for 3%.
Many manufacturing industries have undergone tremendous changes.
Take mobile phones as an example. According to the Hindu News, 92%of mobile phones in the Indian market in 2014 rely on imports, many of which were from India; by 2022, 97%of mobile phones on India are produced in the local area.
In 2023, "Phoenix Weekly" analyzed the Indian demographic dividend. There was a period of writing a mobile phone industry. The article said:
Noida, which crosses the Jemuna River in northeast Delhi, is one of the best witnesses for India's demographic dividend to drive industrial development.
Walking on the streets of Neuida, as if in Guangdong, 1990s: green plants are planted next to the neat and straight main road, and various manufacturing parks are stood up.
On the one hand, Neuida is across the river in the center of Delhi, and on the other hand, the province with the most abundant laborers in India -northern state with a population of 200 million, and also enjoys a special status as an industrial zone.Two choices.Whether it is the Indian local mobile phone brand LAVA, the online payment platform Paytm, or the South Korean Samsung Group, the Indian mobile phone brand OPPO, and vivo, etc., the Indian headquarters is located here.
India has become a new round of international economy beneficiaries
Samsung expanded Needa's mobile phone factory in 2018 and promised to increase its output to 140 million units per year, which became Samsung's largest mobile phone factory in Asia.
As the most influential company in the mobile phone industry chain, Apple leaps in India.
According to a report from the market research agency, Counterpoint, in 2020, the Indian iPhone accounted for only 1.3%of its global output, and the proportion of 2022 has risen to 4%, and it is expected to rise to 7%this year.
According to several media reports, Apple and its suppliers plan to increase India's iPhone output to more than 50 million in the next two or three years, and the number will continue to increase in the later period.
In the latest news, Foxconn Technology Group has decided to pursue a $ 1 billion investment to its Indian factory, and the total investment is expected to reach $ 2.7 billion.
Most people know that Apple goes to India, but few people know that the exports of Indian electronics industry.
In the context of Samsung, Dell, Apple, and Hewlett -Packard's entry into India, in 2022, the export of the Indian electronics industry hit a record high with an export value of up to $ 21.3 billion.
In the first half of 2023, the export momentum of the Indian electronics industry was still strong, and the increase was still close to 50 %, and the high growth under the high base number.
In addition to the rapid growth of the electronics industry, the growth rate of India's petrochemical industry in the past two years has also been amazing.In 2021, the export growth rate of Indian petrochemical products was 105%and 48.7%in 2022.In terms of export contribution rate, it has a greater contribution than the electronics industry.
The strength of the Indian petrochemical industry is closely related to Russia and Ukraine.
According to the Energy and Clean Air Research Center (CREA) based on the independent research organization of Finland, India has imported at least $ 36.7 billion in oil from Russia;The largest buyer of Russian sea transportation oil accounts for 38%of its export volume.
Western lack of energy, India can buy energy with low cost, and the price difference is already a lot of money.
The export demand is strong, and the increase in domestic demand daily, the refining industry is destined to prosper.
According to statistics from relevant Indian departments, it is estimated that by 2024, India will complete about 11 petrochemical projects with a total investment of about $ 17 billion.The scale of the Indian petrochemical market is expected to increase from US $ 178 billion in 2020 to US $ 300 billion in 2025, and the compound annual growth rate of the next five years will be about 11%.
The demand for Petrochemical products by India is expected to increase by nearly twice before 2040, and the value of the industry will exceed the $ 1 trillion mark.
"We expect the Indian petrochemical industry to attract more than $ 87 billion in investment in the next few decades. The Indian Petrochemical industry will continue to grow at a rate of 1.2 to 1.5 times of GDP in the future.
The Indian Shinshi Industrial Group is the best mapping of the Petrochemical industry in India. In 2023, the stock price of Xinshi Industrial Group has always been on a new high.
As of the release date, the market value of Xinshi Industrial Group was 17.06 trillion rupees, which was about 1.54 trillion market value. At the same time, Sinopec+PetroChina's market value was 2 trillion.
In addition to the large industries such as electronics and petrochemicals, progress is not small in small commodities and other fields.
Importyeti's survey shows that from January to August 2023, Wal -Mart's proportion of imports from India has increased from 2%in 2018 to 25%today.
India's manufacturing industry not only benefits from external changes in China, the United States, Russia and Ukraine, but also the rapid growth of internal demand is also an important reason.
In addition to external factors, the reason why foreign capital is settled in India is also an important consideration in the Indian market itself.
According to Guoxin Securities statistics, the proportion of Indian private consumption in GDP has been increasing since 2022, and it has returned to 67%of its historic high in 2023.
Duravity products have increased by 6 times in ten years. After the epidemic, the slope has accelerated significantly.
Buying a house is unprecedentedly enthusiastic, and the familiar Indian taste
No matter which country, the largest domestic demand is the real estate.
As the source of consumer goods and the large investment, the rise and fall of real estate have a significant impact. The same is true in the United States and India and India.
After the epidemic, Indians were enthusiastic about buying a house.
According to the statistics of the agency, the increased demand is as many as 74%, and most cities with more than 30%of residents have increased the housing budget.
The main appeal of Indian home buyers is a larger house.
In "I am 701 days in India", when the author first went to India, the school assigned a large house with six beds.There is only one person in the author, who said he didn't understand well, and the person who received him said:
"There are many children in India, and the family of four to six are normal. We have many visiting experts and scholars here, all of which are dragging their families, so the rooms have to be arranged like this."
There are many lives in India. Even if family planning, there are still many people per household, far from family minorization.Therefore, the demand for housing space is strong.
Many people may not imagine that the current leverage of Indian residents is very low, less than 40%.
According to the institutional statistics, India currently has a higher loan ratio in addition to Mumbai's monthly monthly loan. In 53%, other major cities are within 30%, and the purchase pressure is at a reasonable level.
Considering that India's urbanization rate is only about 40 %, it is likely to usher in a real estate bull market similar to India in the future.
In 2022, India's real estate scale was US $ 477 billion. According to the current demand, the Indian property market will exceed $ 1 trillion in 2030.
The demand for related cement and steel will also increase with multiple.
Many domestic efficiency of India, especially the efficiency of infrastructure, remain doubtful. They believe that this is a major restriction on India's manufacturing and India's economy for a long time.
But in fact, India has improved greatly in this regard.
According to institutional analysis, in October 2021, the Indian government invested 1 million Rsitaries, established a large -scale multi -mode interconnection national overall planning project, comprehensively improved the relevant planning, approval, and implementation process.The implementation of the project has only been resolved only about 500 a year.
In 2023, India announced that the investment in infrastructure in the fiscal budget increased by more than 20%year -on -year, and the growth rate of transportation -related investment reached 32.4%.
In terms of supporting facilities, the folk itself has a lot of demand, coupled with changes in the external environment, and the stimulus of the Indian industry has made the entire economy of India a lot of changes. At the same time as the service industry is strong, the manufacturing industry has also improved significantly.
The proportion of Indian manufacturing in GDP in 2022 has been close to 17%, which is a new high in 20 years.
What is the Indian stock market rising?
Economic performance is good, foreign investment recognizes, and the Indian stock market has risen engines.
Specifically, the most rising sectors are durable consumer goods, IT, medical, banking, technology and other fields.
From the perspective of large and small plates, since 2014, small market value has risen by 4 times, value stocks have risen 2.2 times, and high dividends have risen by 1.53 times.
Although it is rising, the differentiation is very serious.
In the Indian stock market, the influence of foreign capital has always been great.
Institutional data shows that only 3%of Indian families are currently involved in stock market investment, while the United States is 55%, Britain is 33%, and we are 13%.
In terms of foreign capital holding funds, the proportion of foreign capital in the Indian stock market was 6.5%, three times that of India.
The Indian State Stock Exchange (NSE) data shows that the proportion of foreign capital accounting for the market value of India's total circulation has stabilized near 40%of the center since 2006.
From the perspective of the structure of funds, the flow of foreign capital is very important.
Foreign capital has always been in the Indian market and is in a state of net inflows all year round. Even if it flows out of individual years, the scale of the outflow is compared to the long dimension trend, and the impact is weakening.
It can be seen from the picture that in 2022, there were more net outflows from foreign capital, and the Indian retail investors were entered into the market in that year, and the changes in foreign funds were hedged.
According to Citi's data, from March to July 2023, about 35 billion US dollars of funds flowed into emerging markets, India attracted more than 50%; between August and October 2023, $ 50 billion in funds flowed out of emerging emerging funds out of emerging funds.The market accounts for about 6%.This shows that foreign investment has a relative preference for India.
Recently, the funds and retail funds of India have continued to improve.
According to the statistics of the agency, since the second quarter of 2023, the growth rate of Indian retail investors is close to the highest level in January 2022.
The wealth effect brings follow the trend.
It is wonderful that the overall PE level of the Indian stock market is not high.
Since 2021, the overall PE level of the Indian stock market has not changed much due to the rise in the stock market, but has fallen.
This is probably the blessing of the profitability of the enterprise.
The EPS level is getting higher and higher at the same time. In 2022, a new high in 2023 continued to reach a new high.The continuous improvement of profit quality is the most important endogenous driving force of the Indian stock market in the past two years.
How does the Indian stock market protect investors?
Does the company's profitability improve, will the stock price rising?
A shares do not seem to be. Is there any special formula in the Indian stock market?
Recently, many domestic media are very envious of India's trading system. Among them, the protection of retail investors is a heated discussion. Many people say that the design of India's trading system is very conducive to retail investors.+3.
It is unclear how these rumors come from. Unfortunately, this is false news.
After our verification, there is no design that India's trading system can run first.
This is true:
Before 2002, the Indian stock market implemented T+3; after 2002, it was changed to T+2; in 2023, India changed the trading system to T+1.In the future, India will move towards T+0 in the future.
The picture below is intercepted from the Indian Exchange and updated to March 2023.
Obviously T+1.
In addition, thinking from another angle, there are many foreign investment in the Indian market. Foreign capital has strong requirements for the entry and exit of funds. It is impossible to allow the Indian market to be designed as. Foresters run first and look behind the institutional hall.
Therefore, from the perspective of the system design of the transaction level, the Indian market is not special.
Where is better than domestic, the delisting is more stringent.
India has registered system in 1992. Before 2001, the overall delisting situation was average.Until 2003, the "Guidelines for Securities' delisting" was introduced to start the first wave of delisting and cleaning up. In 2004, it entered the delisting climax. In the year, 851 delisted, and the delisting rate reached 16%.
Until 2015, the delisting ratio was not high, and in 2016, it ushered in the second round of delisting.
In 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a special report of the Indian stock delisting system, which said:
The Mumbai Stock Exchange and the Indian State Stock Exchange were divided into a few waves of stocks that have been suspended for many years.From August 2016 to August 2017, 555 shares that were forcibly delisted by the exchange have been suspended for more than 10 years.During the suspension of the transaction, public investors were neither unable to trade stocks nor obtaining legal exit opportunities.After May 2018, the exchange officially reduced the actual threshold for the forced delisting to the ex -market threshold to the suspension transaction specified in the "Securities delisting Guidelines" for more than 6 months, and a total of 463 shares were forced to delist.
After these two cleanups, enter a relatively stable delisting stage.
India's delisting is adopted by the storm and rainy concentrated delisting method, which is not necessarily suitable in the country.
As far as the results are concerned, the execution of the delisting is in place, which plays the role of survival of the fittest and big waves.
We believe that in the Indian delisting system, what is truly respected is that companies that have been forced to delist should buy back the issued shares that have been issued at fair prices.
To put it simply, listed companies must buy back and issued shares issued from shareholders.
On December 21, 2023, the "Securities Times" article, the Indian delisting repurchase system may be used for reference, which is mentioned in detail:
In the delisting system of listed companies in India, there is a highlight of the protection clauses of investors.The delisting includes forced delisting and active delisting. Once the forced delisting decides to take effect, the exchanges need an independent professional team to evaluate the company's assets.Investors repurchase stocks, otherwise they will face punishment.
In active delisting, listed companies will notify all holders to participate in the auction at the reserve price of the delisting and repurchase. The public holders can report the selling price higher than the bottom price.The price obtained by the inquiry of the stock) repurchase all the shares that are less than or equal to the price of the price. If the repurchase does not reach more than 90%of the public holding shares later, it is deemed to be the failure of the active delisting;This system is unique to the Indian stock market.
Many places in the Indian market can learn from, many places may not be able to learn from.For example, domestic investors are very disgusted with derivatives such as stock index futures.
It is reported that derivatives in the Indian market are an important part of the Indian stock market.
In 2000, after the exponential futures were launched, in 2001, derivatives such as index options, stock options, stock futures and other derivatives were launched.
In 2022, according to statistics from the Indian National Stock Exchange (NSE), the total transaction volume of Indian market futures and options has ranked first in the world for 4 consecutive years, and the transaction volume is more than 400 times the spot.
Many domestic investors hope to completely prohibit shorts and prohibit futures futures. The Indian market is just the opposite. Financial futures options transactions and derivatives transactions are very active.
We like to find a reason for the rise, and are accustomed to finding the cause of the decline. Sometimes the culture is different, and the same measures are very different.Mumbai Stock Exchange
For example, the Indian stock market is cheap as a whole, but the structure is overestimated, and some industries are still more expensive. Therefore, many people come to conclusions and fall, which is logical.
If you look at the Indian market, the numbers on the book are almost the same, the Indian market is not expensive as a whole, but the structure is very expensive and unconventional.
For example, the water level of consumer durable products is 80 times, and the general food and beverages are also around 60 times.
Gui, it is the reason for our decline here. The expensive market in the Indian market seems to be a counter -evidence.
In the final analysis, no matter how good the so -called institutional design is, it is also implemented by people. People may play a key role in market expectations or views, which is more important than data and system itself.
Just like the author of Silicon Valley Venture Capital in Silicon Valley from 0 to 1, it is important to look at the differences in different worlds from a cultural perspective. The difference in the financial market is important.
From 0 to 1, authors believe that the United States is optimistic about the future whether it is clear or unclear in the future, and it is not the case in other places. This is a very important reason for the US market to have long cows.
From 0 to 1, India has not been discussed, and domestic analysis has hardly viewed from this perspective.
But in fact, the optimistic attitude of Indians is likely to produce similar chemical reactions like the United States.
As in the book "Above the Earth":
If time is a cloth, I will cut all the bad parts.Dimin the scary night, and then sew the happiness part, so that the days are better.Then I put it on my body like a coat, always happy.
Similarly, the Indians face pain with a Buddha's attitude.
Procrastination and grinding may have been part of their lives, the spirit of optimism, and a certain sense, which is also part of their lives.
Optimistic and slow nature, the long -term role in the stock market may be beyond our imagination.
When a turtle, firmly climbing slowly, when he came to your own air, he exceeded the rabbit running.
(Disclaimer: This article is an objective analysis made by Ye Tan Finance based on public information, which does not constitute investment suggestions. Do not use this as a basis for investment.)
Author: Qingcheng Xunan Editor: Wang Xiaowang
Picture: originated from the Internet, invading and deleting
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