The Indian stock market standing in the air is constantly refreshed.Wall Street can't catch up with the speed of the Indian stock market.In addition to the favorable factors brought by the Modern Prime Minister in the fundamentals, the fiery IPO market has also helped the Indian stock market to some extent.However, the number of surge in retail investors is also easy to cause market bubble risks.The external economic environment, such as the conflict of geopolitical politics and the changes in the Federal Reserve monetary policy, also have a profound impact on the Indian stock market.
The two major Indian stock markets are the Mumbai Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE).Among them, the Mumbai Securities Exchange was established in 1875. It represents the Index Sensex30 and carries more than 4,700 Indian listed companies.The National Stock Exchange was founded in 1992 and began trading in 1994, representing the index of the Nifty50 Index.
On July 15th, the Indian stock market once again set a high -level record. The Nifty50 reached a historical high, and the SenseX30 stock index also remained at a historical high of over 80,000 points.Looking at the entire emerging market, the Indian stock market has almost no rivals.Over the past 10 years, the MSCI India Index, which represents the overall performance of large and medium -sized listed companies in the Indian market, has risen for 9 years. Even from 2020 to 2023, which encountered an epidemic, the MSCI India index still skyrocketed by 46%, leading the main emergence of emerging emergence, and the main emergence of emerging emerging emerged, the main emergence of emerging emerging emerged, and the main emergence of the leading emerging emerging emerging emerging emerging, the main emergence of emerging emergedmarket.
From the perspective of industry insiders, the strength of the Indian stock market is commonly driven by both fundamentals and technical factor.ICICI's fund manager IHAB Dalwal, the fund manager of the ICICI Asset Management Company, previously stated at the "Indian & Brazil Market Investment Exchange Special Conference" that the rising power of the Indian stock market is mainly from India's macroeconomic growth.The diversification of the weight sector, as well as the three factors of domestic capital inflows and greater than foreign capital inflows.
Investor Guo Jinxi, who focuses on emerging market stocks, told a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily, "In the fundamental point of view, India is still one of the fastest -growing economies in the world, and the growth is mainly promoted by investors' optimistic investment.The ability of the Bank of India and the government to curb inflation through monetary policy and supply -side reform has also boosted the confidence of investors. "
He said, "From a technical perspective, the launch of the System Investment Plan (SIP) has also promoted India's domestic capital flow and domestic investors' participation in the Indian stock market.The influence of foreign capital is usually very sensitive to the Fed's actions. "
According to data from the Indian Common Fund Association (AMFI), starting from March 2021, Indian stock funds have had a net inflow for 38 consecutive months.Despite the recent increase in market fluctuations and caution before the election, the inflow rate of funds has declined, but the monthly investment contribution of the SIP account has exceeded 200 billion rupees. In April, it also reached a historical high of 203.71 billion rupees.
Under the continuous pursuit of foreign capital, the Indian market IPO boom rose.The US CNBC network quoted FactSet data newspapers saying that so far in 2024, India has ushered in the listing of 130 companies, with a financing amount of 313 billion rupees (about 3.74 billion US dollars).According to the speed of the first half of the year, the number of IPOs in India this year is expected to surpass 2023, setting a new record.Last year, 238 companies in the Indian stock market raised $ 7.35 billion through the public offering of the company, and the number of IPO ranked first in the world.
This has attracted many retail investors.According to data from Prime Database Group, of the 36 IPOs of the Indian Exchange this year, retail investors subscribed for a total of about $ 10.6 billion in stocks -over -subscribed multiples of more than 12 times.Taking the recently listed electric vehicle charging company ExiCom Tele-Systems as an example, the number of purchases of Indian retail investors has reached 120 times the number of issuance shares.
PRANAV Haldea, managing director of Prime Database Group, commented that many retail investors are short -term transactions for new shares and do not intend to hold them for a long time: "Most retail investors are basically for stock trading, not for the company's fundamentals."" "According to the listing income we see now, as long as you can get a quota, you can make fast money."
It is reported that at present, the individual quota purchased by all new shares in the Indian market is full.Vineet Arra, the manager of Nav Capital Emerging Star Fund in Singapore, believes that the enthusiasm of Indian retail investors is unstoppable: "I have talked with many younger generations of investors. Most of them do not want to buy a house. These money is flowing into the stock market."
Conversely, the enhancement of retail investors' confidence has also promoted people's strong interest in IPOs of SMEs.Their successful listing inspires more companies to go public, thereby transforming into a strong IPO boom."By the issuance of a large number of IPO issuance and the withdrawal of private equity, India will usher in a record year.
India's "Coin News" reported that the success of these IPOs reflects the widespread economic optimism and the supporting supervision environment that encourages the capital market participation.In 2024, 57%of SMEs issued more than 100%.
Some analysts believe that thanks to the end of the election with Modi, the Indian stock market will continue to rise in the next period of time. Modi's emphasis on infrastructure and manufacturing materials will continue to become the focus of the market.
However, some investors expressed concern about the high valuation of the Indian market and the overwhelming of the Indian stock market transactions.Indian News Network Mint pointed out that the participation of individual investors has continued to riseMumbai Stock Exchange. Many of them have heard the advice of unauthorized financial advisors and social media "experts" and are becoming a hidden danger of market regulatory agencies.Tiaji, former chairman of the Indian Securities Exchange Commission, said that "retail investors with limited financial knowledge hope to make money easily, but there is a foam in the market."
Yao Yuanmei, an associate professor of the Socialist History and Literature Institute of East China Normal University and director of the South Asian Research Center, said that there are also hidden concerns behind this wave of IPO.At present, the stock market has a high valuation and needs to be cautious.The "Nikkei Asian Review" reported that the Indian IPO boom has caused retail investors to be "cut chives". In the past three years, about 1/4 of Indian companies have fallen below the issue price.
In the long run, many Indian IPO companies have not performed well.A report from the investment company YK2 Partners showed that since the beginning of 2021, companies listed in India not only extended 44 times average, but also increased by about 25%of these stocks on the first day of listing.But 2/3 of the company's performance lags behind the broader market.
Shi Jing, Manager of Manuria Indian Stock Fund, said that in the short term, after the general election, the annual industrial support direction mentioned in the fiscal budget in mid -July is worth paying attention to, but in the middle and long term, India's reforms and economic growth expectations must be paid attention to.
In terms of fundamentals, there is a pessimistic voice that the Indian manufacturing industry has gradually become empty. In the past 10 years, Indian manufacturing accounted for GDP from 17%to about 13%.The development of the Indian family has the risk of valuation adjustment.Once the growth is not as good as expected, "Davis Double Kill" will not be ruled out.
Beijing Business Daily Reporter Zhao Tianshu
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